Sunday’s Press Conference

Mush was sweating bullets yesterday as he faced a barrage of tough questions over his recent actions. As determined as he is to hold on to power, its patently obvious that our President has little stamina for politics. Its an indication of his political acumen that he rarely takes part in open q&a sessions and more often than not finds some way to put his foot in his mouth. The reporters for their part, did not pull any punches and the General was put on the spot on a range of hot-button topics including a timeline for his emergency rule, the removal of his uniform, the motivations behind the expulsion of the judiciary, his relationship with Benazir Bhutto, and his ability to fight the War on Terror dogged by political distractions.

It must be admitted that political pressure at home and abroad seems to be having the desired effect and the recent statements coming from the President’s office have been relatively more positive. Musharraf has stated that the provincial and national assemblies will be dissolved by Nov. 15th 2007 and general elections should be held by mid-Jan. At the same time, one still cant get a straight answer from him regarding his uniform. With regards to the emergency the message is clear: as soon as the new judges validate his election as President.

The good General was also asked about the three Daily Telegraph reporters who were expelled a couple of days ago. Apparently they printed a fiercely critical article which contained an expletive which had been used by a protester to describe the commander-in-chief. Mush seemed to have taken it to heart and in a rather hurt voice he countered: “how would you feel if one of our reporters said that about your leaders?” Perhaps we’ve all misjudged him. Perhaps there really is a sensitive soul behind that stone-cold demeanour?

This last possibility is corroborated by an interesting anecdote I heard recently. A friend of mine was telling me how he recently attended a wedding where the good General was also attending. When the bhangra music came on, a discrete message was delivered to the group of young students. Take to the dance-floor immediately. The General wanted to boogie but didn’t want to be the first one on the floor(believe it or not). It just wouldn’t be proper after all… Now that’s a provisional order.

What the Media has to say:

In today’s Dawn (9th Nov. ’07) Ayaz Amir wrote a particularly vocal piece. *Shockingly* it made it past the sensors. I quote: “You can’t mock the heavens and think there will be nothing to pay for it. These are the acts of desperate men…” Quite grandiose; but yet I can’t help but wonder if the good General will survive this latest crisis like he has many in the past. I suspect the man is a lot cleverer than most people give him credit for.

Mr. Amir goes on to point out a sadly overlooked news item which was lost in the hubub of emergency: “the release of over 20 men accused of planning suicide bombings, and their handing over to the militant commander, Baitullah Mehsud, in return for the release of over 200 captured army personnel. Included in this number was Sohail Zeb, Mehsud’s cousin, caught allegedly with a suicide jacket on.” This is noteworthy indeed, especially for those who look to the good General to save them from the dissidents in the tribal belt. Certainly negotiations with terrorists are to be avoided?

The author goes on to note that this is the most widely and enthusiastically resisted emergency in Pakistan’s history. Perhaps so, and yet it is as comprehensive as any in the past and shows no sign of cracks.

The BBC’s online edition also had an interesting editorial on its page today. It explores the possibility that the house arrest of Benazir Bhutto in the runup to her mass rallies is nothing more than a staged drama. Both sides have an understanding that the move will allow the Mohtarma to preserve her democratic credentials in the face of accusations of deal-making with the military while preserving the strength of the emergency. Definitely worth taking a look at.

One line from the Indian Express on the eve of emergency(Nov. 3rd ’07) summed up the current situation quite neatly: “Fig leaf gone, once again people watch as Pakistan is conquered by its own army.”

Bush bites back

Having been stung by the political fallback in Washington and fearing Senate reprisal, the so-called leader of the free world rang up Mushy last night to give him an ultimatum. In a curt twenty minute conversation, he very “frankly” told him what the State Dept. had been saying for a few days now: that the United States did not have “unlimited patience” for unruly dictators in the Orient who persisted in giving the War on Terror a bad name. Promptly and deferentially, Musharraf agreed to set a date for the elections: Feb. 15th 2008. But not to worry Mush, keep your chin up. He did put in a few good words for your role in fighting terrorism after all. Oh and lets not forget the tacit support in letting you hang on to your rather impressive looking uniform for a bit longer.

“When will the United States develop some depth in their foreign policy I wonder?”

“When the Pakistanis have a fair election, or hell freezes over, whichever comes first.”

between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea

Over the past few weeks, our family has been engaged in a fierce political debate – in itself an altogether not uncommon thing in Pakistan. The content of the debate though, I found myself very intrigued by. Before continuing, it would be worthwhile to mention that it works on the assumption that secular democracy is the only constructive foundation for Pakistani society. This is a premise that has often been disputed. Some of my friends have claimed that for a largely illiterate and feudal society like Pakistan, a benevolent dictatorship would be far more pragmatic. Sounds like paternalistic hogwash to me[read Amartya Sen], but to each his own I suppose.

My Uncle(let us call him S.), is an ardent liberal who has been pained to see more than one military dictatorship in his lifetime, which made his arguments all the more surprising. He has argued that more urgent than the threat of military rule in the present, is the danger posed by the feudal establishment of the Pakistani heartland, who have managed to cement their place in the corridors of powers, i.e. the government and the military. As he sees it, this establishment is the greatest supporter of radical Islamism since it serves their purpose quite neatly by perpetuating the ignorance of the populace and consolidating their grip on the reins of state.

According to him, Z.A. Bhutto was one of the first Pakistani leaders to take the fight to them, confronting them with secular democracy. This is why he was killed. In the present, the fight is being carried on by Musharraf who has taken a similar stance i.e. his crusade against militancy in the tribal belt, his albeit shallow support of liberalism, etc. To provide further proof, he has argued that the very people who supported Zia in the past are the same ones who are now anti-Musharraf. The argument is that fundamentalism poses a far more dangerous and subversive threat than any military dictatorship and as such, Musharraf should have been allowed to ‘do his thing’ and continue dismantling the establishment.

I believe that S.’ analysis of the political situation is far more deep and substantial than that of most analysts and commentators writing today who cannot seem to get beyond the simplistic dictatorship/democracy dichotomy. However, though I agree with his prescription I cannot reconcile myself to his cure. I think its the ideology of fundamentalism which must be combatted rather than the simple support of it. At the grass-roots level, the people who are drawn to militancy are those who have become disillusioned regarding the political process of democratic governance, those who have been disenfranchised by the Pakistani economy, and the political power structure. Furthermore, in the past few years of military rule (the primary focus of which has been the elimination of extremism), fundamentalism has grown exponentially in the Frontier, FATA, and Waziristan areas.

Just yesterday (Nov. 7th ’07), Kalam in the Swat valley was seized by Maulana Fazlullah and his men. Two thirds of the valley, a mere day’s drive from Islamabad, are now in control of the militants. Today they retreated, but not due to any military intervention, but rather due to the ambivalence of the general public towards their cause. In the meantime they have been raiding ammo dumps, police stations, and army checkposts to resupply, without any significant action by the army whatsoever. Local police have been calmly surrendering to them left, right, and center while the stalwart jawans of our FC troops lay their lives on the line waiting for backup. By emposing an emergency, the government is now diverting its resources to neutralizing and jailing members of civil society rather than combatting the real foe. They are stuck in a political quagmire while the looming threat of fundamentalism seems ever more powerful. This is why I believe dictatorships are counter-productive for Pakistani society. They are so concerned with consolidating their own tenuous hold on power, that they cannot engage the real issues in Pakistan.

However, the issue remains a real concern and S.’ arguments cannot be so easily parried. I would greatly welcome constructive comments on this debate by viewers of this blog.

Ms. Bhutto takes a stance… finally

After five long days of political maneuvering and verbal backsliding, the inimitable Mohtarma has decided that she is indeed very much opposed to the General’s emergency. A rally has been planned for Rawalpindi on Friday, followed by a long march of Gandhian proportion from Lahore to Islamabad the following week. Politics aside (I actually support many of her policies) if the democratic movement succeeds it’ll be a victory for the civil society and constitutionalism – not the political parties – as the hundreds of lawyers behind bars and in stitches and crutches will testify. As heartening as it is to see hundreds of thousands of people turn up on the streets of Karachi for a secular democratic cause (as they did on October 18th), I have lost a lot of faith in Ms. Bhutto over this past week; she’s just too much of a politician…